A Finsec View – Property, CGT, Gates on AI, Shrinkflation and More
2nd June 2023 Never let a good crisis go to waste! The biggest macroeconomic swing factor in global markets of the past few weeks has been the ongoing impasse around the US Debt Ceiling. And, whilst resolved for now (in principle - there are still a few bridges to cross), in considering these types of situations, it may be oddly helpful to remind ourselves that the US is home to many of the best businesses in the world. As obvious as this statement is, it's [...]
Weekly Market Update – 26th May 2023
Investment markets and key developments Global share markets were mixed over the last week with uncertainty about the US debt ceiling and interest rates along with worries about the Chinese recovery, but a strong boost to some US tech stocks from strong AI related demand. After a solid gain on Thursday and Friday on the back of AI enthusiasm and confidence that a debt ceiling deal will be reached US shares rose 0.3% for the week. The Japanese share market continued its resurgence rising another 0.4%. [...]
Weekly Market Update – 19th May 2023
Investment markets and key developments Global share markets rose over the last week helped by optimism that a US debt ceiling deal will soon be reached and with economic data still holding up. Despite a messy session on Friday, with US shares initially up with Fed Chair Powell signalling an inclination to pause on rates and then falling to end down 0.1% as debt ceiling talks paused over an impasse on spending cuts, for the week US shares gained 1.7%. Over the week Eurozone shares rose [...]
A Finsec View – Recession, Debt ceilings, SLOOS, Federal Budget and more
19th May 2023 Former Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens knows all too well how long inflation can hang around. This week he warned Australians of the difficult road ahead. The current Macquarie Bank chairman told a conference this week that so-called ‘soft landings’ are pretty uncommon. When they have happened, he said, they have been in the context of “more favourable trend developments in supply than we appear to see at present”. He was speaking at the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association conference in [...]
Weekly Market Update – 12th May 2023
Investment markets and key developments It was a quieter week in financial markets. Issues around the banking sector have again faded into the background, but it's too early to say that they are completely resolved. US debt ceiling negotiations are progressing. US President Biden hosted a White House meeting with House Speaker McCarthy and others. While there was no outcome from the meeting (although that was expected), talks between the policymakers are expected to keep going later this week which is positive. The next few weeks [...]
Weekly Market Update – 5th May 2023
Investment markets and key developments Global share markets mostly fell over the last week with further rate hikes and ongoing concerns about US banks and the US debt ceiling. Despite strong rallies on Friday as US banks bounced and as solid US payrolls tempered recession fears a bit, for the week US shares lost 0.8% and Eurozone shares fell 0.5%. Chinese shares fell 0.3% and Japanese shares rose 1%. Australian shares fell by another 1.2% not helped by the surprise RBA rate hike and the weak [...]
A Finsec View – RBA review, Charlie’s happy & fulfilling life, 60/40 portfolios, To wait or not? and More
5th May 2023 It's reached the stage where the RBA cash rate leads the news every few weeks. After this week's increase to 3.85%, the 11th in a year, it's not difficult to conclude that Governor Philip Lowe will most likely use the remaining four months of his term to quash inflation, even if the consequences for some borrowers are a little dire (Australians are definitely feeling it. Consumer credit agency Equifax reports a large increase in demand for credit cards and personal loans). We don't [...]
Weekly Market Update – 28th April 2023
Investment markets and key developments Global share markets were mixed over the last week with US shares initially down but then boosted by tech sector earnings to be up 0.9% and Japanese shares rose 1%, but Eurozone shares fell 0.9% and Chinese shares fell 0.1%. Australian shares fell 0.3% with falls in resources stocks and utilities offsetting gains in telcos, property and IT shares. Bond yields fell, as did oil, metal and iron ore prices fell. The $A fell despite a slight fall in the $US. [...]